moore's law and solar power

topic posted Sat, April 5, 2008 - 2:59 AM by  mark
you all know moore's law. computer speed doubles about every 2 years. these chips that are doubling in speed are built on silicon same as most solar cells, right? my little muse is this: what if we pump enough money into solar, can we start applying this "law" to solar power, if so, in 20 years we will have little 1" square cells getting a hell of alot of juice.

also, remember that in 1" square only so much sunlight will ever fall into that square, but if prisms, mirrors, holograms, etc are used we can increase that substantially as well, maybe...
posted by:
mark
  • Re: moore's law and solar power

    Sat, April 5, 2008 - 10:37 AM
    thats the hope with battery tech also
    nasa developed a solar panel that is 1" square that uses a parabolic reflector to concentrate the sun into that 1" square, now their are a bunch of startup company's out in desert land building massive collector arrays with this tech.
    • Re: moore's law and solar power

      Sat, April 5, 2008 - 1:13 PM
      By any chance do you know the names of these companies and where they are based? I'm exploring job opportunities and I'm interested being involved with a company I can be proud of - and can potentially make some big $$ in the no-so-distant future.
  • Re: moore's law and solar power

    Sat, April 5, 2008 - 1:42 PM
    mark,

    another really exciting thing about investing in solar is whats called 'economics of scale', meaning the more investment in an industry the more infrastructure is made to accommodate the demand and prices can become lower. The extent of physics seems to always be stretched with these solar companies. Sunpower is up to %19, and no one would have let you tell them that was possible in the 70s. only good things can come with more investment in the solar power. right on!
  • Re: moore's law and solar power

    Sat, April 5, 2008 - 2:34 PM
    Moore's law cannot apply to solar.

    There's that second law of thermodynamics to get in the way.

    Though processing power has no theoretical limits, solar cell efficiency does. The cells have maximum efficiency of 100%. Once you hit that, you've hit the top. So...if it were possible to double every couple of years, before long you'd reach a maximum number and the physics would make it essentially impossible to go any further with the tech.

    Not so with processing power.
    • Re: moore's law and solar power

      Sat, April 5, 2008 - 8:41 PM
      > There's that second law of thermodynamics to get in the way.

      Yup. You can't get more power out of the thing than is contained in the sunlight itself that's hitting the panel.

      This is, by the way, roughly 300BTU per hour per square foot.

      > Not so with processing power.

      Well, not entirely true either, but the theoretical limits are so far beyond where we're at that we have plenty of generations to work through.

      Moore's law is misnamed; it's by no means a law. Its predictive value only exists in the sense that it seems to be holding up fairly consistantly, if you're willing to give plenty of leeway in your measurements. Think of it as "Moore's Observation", and don't presume that that there's any guarantee of it holding up.
      • Re: moore's law and solar power

        Sun, April 6, 2008 - 12:53 PM
        "Well, not entirely true either, but the theoretical limits are so far beyond where we're at that we have plenty of generations to work through. "

        Yes...realized that a moment after posting it, and decided to wait for someone to correct me. The limits of Moore's law depend a lot upon the medium. We're nearing the limits of silicon now, but there are other media to work with.....
    • Re: moore's law and solar power

      Sun, April 6, 2008 - 11:07 AM
      And beyond the Second Law there's the First Law of Economics: scarcity inflates prices. The total output of the factory producing these new cheap solar cells has been bought by some mega-conglomerate or other, so the stuff won't be available to the public for the forseeable future. If another big purchase and then another occur they may never see the 'light of day' for us mere mortals. This chokepoint needs to be overcome before Moores Law can take over.

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