Big Brother 7 All Stars: Final Four & A Last Chance To Win


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Strategy Commentary by Viking Bear
September 5, 2006
Mike Boogie has aptly named this entire season of Big Brother 7 All Stars "Operation Double Date." This week the final four become the final two. Will the inevitable happen? Perhaps not! Let's take a quick look at each of our Final Four and see what we see.

Each of the four - Erika, Janelle, Mike Boogie, Will - represents an extremely strong strategy. Each, in my view, represents what being an All Star is all about. First, though, I gotta shout out to Chicken George. Dude, I never saw the first season. You're everything you were reputed to be. You're friendly, entertaining. You sacrificed like nobody else in the game (except perhaps Danielle's 24 hours solitary). I wish you well.

Erika
Erika's crisis is at hand. If she survives this next eviction, she may well win. That's the catch, of course! She's almost certainly gone with this next eviction. She will have finished 4th place twice, and Will will finish 1st place twice.

Erika has played a strong game along the lines of Sandra who won Survivor Pearl Islands (that's the season that introduced Rupert Boneham as the Pirate of the Drake and Morgan Tribes). She's been there, she's been a vote, and she's always been available to the person in power. Her first (and perhaps strongest) move was particularly annoying at the time. She won the power of veto, and refused to use it.

Even though we all knew Erika would not use the Veto, it was particularly annoying. Nakomis (if I remember correctly) was out the door. We needed another strategist in the house. What would this season have been like with Nakomis in the house? There's no question that removing Alison, Nakomis, and Diane at the start was a strong move for the rest of the All Stars.

The strongest move of all would have been to remov Evil Doctor Will the Puppet Master the first week. Or the second week. Or the third. Or the fourth. Or the fifth. But with Will in the game, that just wasn't going to happen. More on that below!

Let's get back to Erika's strategy. She says she plays an emotional game. She played quietly and brilliantly during Diane's eviction week. Any time Diane tried to plead her case in a private conversation, Erika was right there listening. It worked.

Erika has played a low-key game. She has caught and kept the attention of the real power in the house, Chill Town. She has helped ensure that somebody else was always a bigger target for nomination, even though she was able to win the endurance competitions. We've been assuming that, if Erika makes the final three, she's a serious threat. The final competition is normally an endurance competition, and Erika is strong in that area. If it's a competition like the final immunity challenge in Survivor Exile Islands, where being light weight is an advantage, Erika has it.

Is Erika's low-key strategy worthy of being an All Star? Absolutely! Her vote was always available to the person in power - and therefore she tended to be protected by that person in power. She never committed to a full alliance - and therefore never fell on the wrong side of the cut. She's made very few enemies in the process.

Thinking long term, if you make the final two, and you've made few enemies, and the other person has made enemies, you will probably win. Chris and Twila of Survivor Vanuatu are the perfect example. Twila's mouth made enemies, and Chris won explicitly for that reason.

Either Will or Erika are gone Tuesday night. If Erika's gone, that's the end of her story. But... what if she stays? She could probably win that final Head of Household, and she could probably win against Mike Boogie. Especially if she has the better part of the week alone with him before the jury vote.

If Will stays, Will wins (I'll explain that in a bit). If Erika stays, I'd call Erika a strong possibility to win. This next eviction determines the winner, I think - and that eviction is up to Janelle.

Another irony is that Erika is not the next Diane - or Nakomis. For her, there will never be the question of "bros before hos." If Erika stays, there is only one "bro" left. If Erika leaves, it's Janelle who gets to learn about "bros before hos." Erika really needed to win that Power of Veto.

Janelle
When this season started, I did not like Janelle. I was disgusted by the Sovs last season, and even more disgusted by the horrid behavior of her fans on the board. In fact I didn't even bother to watch the last few weeks of last season. I don't even know how far she got last year - I only know that none of the Season Six All Stars made it to the final two.

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I gather from Mike Boogie's comments at the Nomination Ceremony that each of the other three made it to the Final Four in their respective seasons. So Janelle must have made it further than either Kaysar, James, or Howie. I can now see why!

At this point I like Janelle. She has played a fantastic game, winning competitions left and right. I am reminded of Terry who dominated Survivor Exile Island and finished third. As Shane (or Aras?) explained in Tribal Council, you can win all the immunity you want, but if you don't have the jury vote, you don't win.

Janelle might have the votes, but I don't think so. She alienated too many people early in the game. She kept herself hidden in the HoH room - she only came out during the lockdowns. She tended to rub it in a bit each time she won. She's totally cute with her Princess ways, but that might not get her those votes from the jury.

Janelle clearly had an overall strategy, but she has been vulnerable to being "played." She has been all season. She's been extremely vulnerable to other peoples' opinions of her.

At the start of the season, we saw Janelle's incessant eating. I'm sure this was nervousness and stress. I think the same is true of her hiding in the Head of Household room the entire first half of this season. Janelle has a huge fan base - the largest by far of any All Star, judging by email and message board comments - and Janelle knows this. This season she's up against All Stars who are every bit as good as she is, and she still doesn't want to disappoint her fans.

Nor has she - but Janelle doesn't yet know that! Do you recall Rupert's "fat kid" confession on Survivor Pearl Islands? He was the kid who couldn't do anything, and here he was walking around in a dress. How pathetic. Yet at the time, he was the complete star of the show. Then came Survivor All Stars. He was filming All Stars before the Live Reunion had even happened for his own season!

Rupert had a reputation to live up to. Instead he used his Home Depot skills to build a house with a basement, which lost them the competition. It flooded, giving Jenna the worst night of her life. (Marcellas still has Jenna beat, having had the worst day of his life twice a week this season.)

Of course this is about Janelle, not Rupert. Rupert has his million. My point is that Janelle wants people to like her - that's been a strong motivation for her throughout this season. That's what has colored her decisions. She has made some major strategic blunders. Each blunder has been to please someone. And, the fact is, she's made the Final Three.

Janelle has played an emotional game. Her emotions have been based on being the hands-down top competitor, and on wanting people to like her. She has gained my respect, and that is something she did not have at the start of this season.

The irony is, Janelle controls this next eviction. She controls her own fate. If she plays with her head, she might win it all. If she plays with her heart, she'll almost certainly lose. I expect she'll play with her heart, evict Erika, and take second to Will.

Mike Boogie
I knew at the start of this season that I don't like Mike Boogie's style. I don't like Scott and Jase, and I don't like Howie. Having said that, however, Mike Boogie has played an unbeatable game this season.

Mike has, as we all know, played the front man for The Puppet Master. Will has carried Mike to the Final Four. Boogie sliced his foot in competition, and Will broke his thumb. Both Will and Boogie have a strong track record of success outside the Big Brother House. That has provided a quiet confidence that the other All Stars simply don't have.

Mike said on the broadcast Sunday night that this is business. He's willing to hurt people emotionally in order to win. We assume he's referring to Erika.

emember, though, what Mike said a week or two ago on an earlier broadcast. He said that there was a deeper game being played than anybody realizes. Remember that Boogie said this and not Will.

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Mike Boogie, the entire season, has been playing to win. I'm truly not sure if Will has or not. I think Will half expected to be evicted early on, just like Nakomis. Assuming that was the case, he was "planting seeds" aimed at Mike Boogie surviving to meet the jury.

That was "plan A." "Plan B" is what we've actually seen. Nobody quite got around to evicting Chill Town, and they couldn't force themselves to just up and walk out the door before sequester. By that time the Puppet Master was having too much fun running his puppets. Plan B, then, is for Will and Boogie to be in the final two.

Mike Boogie wants to win. No doubt about that. What about Will? Will feels it would be awesome to actually win twice. "But at the end of the day" he really doesn't care. He's very much like Chicken George. He's totally okay with getting this far, and has totally enjoyed the unique summer's entertainment.

If Will and Boogie are the final two, Will wins. Surely Mike Boogie sees that! Is he willing to play "me before either bros or hos?" He's already said on camera that he is. He needs to be the last to get to Janelle, and convince Janelle to evict Will so that she Janelle can win. "What you must do, go and do quickly."

With Will gone, we have Erika, Janelle, and Mike Boogie. If Mike wins, he makes the final two with his choice of date. If Erika wins, she probably takes Mike because he saved her. If Janelle wins... I'm not sure which way she would pick. She might prefer to not face the jury with another woman, which means Mike is in the final two. Or, she might prefer to have Erika beside her rather than being a vote against her on the jury.

The one certainty, I think, is that if Will survives the next eviction, Boogie does not win Big Brother All Stars. Slim odds is better than no odds, therefore Mike should convince Janelle to evict Will.

Mike Boogie, as Will's sidekick, has played an All Star game. He's been crude and obnoxious, and outlasted every other crude and obnoxious All Star in the house. He won't be the first to hold an alliance from the first week to the final two - the Four Horsemen placed Drew and Cowboy in the final two, dropping Diane and Nakomis as Bros Before Hos.

At the moment, it's looking like Erika is the Diane, only making final four; Janelle is Nakomis, losing to Bros Before Hos, and Mike Boogie is Cowboy, foolishly choosing Bros Before Hos to place second.

The difference is that Mike Boogie is highly intelligent and willing to be emotionally ruthless. He's something of a jerk by nature, and he's highly successful. He's had a strong handle on the Chill Town strategy the entire season. He's able to recognize the need to remove Will. But will he do so? And, for that matter, can he? We'll find out tonight!

Doctor Will
Will has played the game on an entirely different level from anyone else in the house, and in fact on a different level from anyone in the history of Big Brother. Rumor has it that he worked out a contract with the producers before entering the house. If he was in the house, the rumor goes, the producers guaranteed that Mike Boogie would be in the house as well. Will had guaranteed his alliance before stepping foot in the house!

Will has been casually manipulating the All Stars for entertainment. Now that he's in the final four, he might as well win, but at the end of the day, winning has not been the priority. He's simply been enjoying being the puppet master along the way.

Not once the entire season have I heard a Head of Household say, "Gee, we need to evict Chill Town," and actually put up Chill Town with the intention of getting Chill Town evicted. Many times we've heard that somebody needs to evict Chill Town... but nobody ever quite got around to doing so! Absolutely amazing. What a performance on Will's part!

It's been obvious from the first week that Will and Boogie intend to go to the final two together. Sure, we believed for a while that neither one intended to go beyond a week or two. But the All Stars refused to evict them, forcing them into sequester. And now they're pretty much forced into the final three, and final two. They don't even get to be on the jury.

What's strange is this. Will and Boogie are playing together. The phrase "bros before hos" keeps coming up. So it's well known that they plan on taking each other to the final two. What's weird is that nobody seems to have thought that through.

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What every All Star should have been thinking is this. "If Will and Boogie are in the final two, that means I am not in the final two." Everyone seems to get the Will and Boogie in the final two part, but nobody - ever, the entire season - seems to have figured out the "therefore I am not in the final two" part. George seems to have been the one person to figure that out, and funny coincidence, that's the week he left the house.

Everyone has played this game before. Everyone has been in this situation week after week. They've seen this play out season after season. Yet nobody ever made a priority of splitting up Chill Town! I give Will full credit for this amazing feat.

Let's take a look at the end game. Here's how I expect it to play out.

First, Janelle evicts her rival Erika. Janelle is under Will's spell (it's called the Imperius Curse), and her only other option would be to evict Will. That places Janelle, Will, and Mike Boogie in the Final Three. Hot Time in the Hot Tub.

Next we have the final head of household competition. It's generally an endurance test. Janelle could well win - and so could Mike Boogie. The winner, of course, is in the final two, and therefore it's important to win!

Will immediately steps down.

What does this accomplish? By stepping down, Will forces the other person to evict, and therefore buying Will a vote. Boogie intends to take Will to the final two. Janelle intends to take Will to the final two. Therefore, if you're Will, step down and let them decide who gets to take you to the final two. Janelle, if evicted, will vote for Will. Boogie, if evicted, will vote for Will.

If Will were to win the final Head of Household, he must choose - and risk losing a jury vote by choosing. Janelle and Erika on the jury, realizing it was Bros Before Hos all along, could cost Will the win.

Does Will risk anything at all by stepping down? No! If either Boogie or Janelle had the slightest intention of not taking Will to the final two, Will would already be gone. He would be gone and Erika in the final three. So if Will is in the final three, Will knows he'll be brought to the Final Two by either player. It's almost mathematical.

I think we'll have a split jury vote no matter which of the final four make the final two. However, it does look to me like everyone is under Will's spell, including both Boogie and Janelle. Erika will leave next, Will will step down from the next competition, and the winner will take Will along to give him the win.

Will, on the broadcast, said that the "fast forward" worked to his disadvantage. I disagree. Will was the only person who already had the house aligned with his game plan. With no time for anyone to shift things around, things went according to Will's plan. It was literally preordained!

Do you recall earlier this season where Season Six decided to give Janelle a "body guard" around the clock? That was so that nobody could get to Janelle and change her plans. That plan backfired, because that meant they left James alone with Janelle! But I expect Will to do the same thing, keeping Janelle's blonde head safe from both Erika and Mike Boogie.

Last Chance to Win
In my view, the season is over and Will has won. I'd love to see Will win because I think he has played a far better game than anyone in the house. Both James and Kaysar had proved to be good strategists, but they were out-generaled by Will.

Janelle has been a fantastic competitor. However, she has clearly been played by Chill Town and not the other way around. This eviction is her first and last chance to prove me wrong. If she evicts Will, she deserves to win.

I just don't see Janelle flipping the game upside down. She's playing the game for Will. How well I'm reminded of those dreaded words from a half century ago...

Now it's time to say goodbye, to all our company,
M-I-C, See you real soon!
K-E-Y, Why? Because we like you!
M - O - U - S - E!

There will be another episode some day, but for now, the game is over, and Will has won. It's been a pleasure to watch.
posted by:
Tim
online Tim
Greenville

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