Some random thoughts on plant conservation that were stimulated by a conference I was at recently....
* Some claim that we are currently at 120% of earth's capacity for sustaining human life. This is considering *today's* conditions, does not consider the estimated 52 coal plants that the Chinese will be creating over the next year, does not consider population growth estimated to top out at 9-10 billion, and does not consider the long-term effects of feeding the hungry and malnourished who make up a notable proportion of the global population.
* With current rates of global warming it is estimated that species would have to migrate 30 feet per day in order to remain in their current climate. While this might seem possible for many animals, we need to realize this is pretty much impossible for most plants. We should also realize that many non-plant species live in specific communities, so individual parts of those communities are not likely to migrate by themselves unless ecological niches open up in the new home area.
* Even if carbon emissions were entirely curtailed tomorrow, it's estimated that we would still experience 2 degrees C of warming over the next 100 years due to the time-lag involved on the warming effect of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. A warming of 1.5 C is thought to be sufficient to result in the extinction of 15-30% of species worldwide.
In other words, we've gone beyond any so-called tipping point, in my opinion. Clearly, the challenges to global conservation of plants will be enormous. On the other hand, I really think that humans are pretty clever (intelligent, maybe not as much), and we can probably think up ways to help conserve plant species more effectively under changing climate conditions. Seed collections are one method that this might be done, but I'm curious if others have ideas.
As an example, one thing I have wondered about is whether it would be feasible to intentionally move plant communities, or at least select species, polewards. The 30 ft per day would even out to something like 2 miles per year, so a decade's worth of movement might still just be 20 miles. I'm guessing this would be most useful at ecotones, and might need to account for soil types in some way, but it's one idea I thought of while listening to plant conservation lectures that seemed so dire.
* Some claim that we are currently at 120% of earth's capacity for sustaining human life. This is considering *today's* conditions, does not consider the estimated 52 coal plants that the Chinese will be creating over the next year, does not consider population growth estimated to top out at 9-10 billion, and does not consider the long-term effects of feeding the hungry and malnourished who make up a notable proportion of the global population.
* With current rates of global warming it is estimated that species would have to migrate 30 feet per day in order to remain in their current climate. While this might seem possible for many animals, we need to realize this is pretty much impossible for most plants. We should also realize that many non-plant species live in specific communities, so individual parts of those communities are not likely to migrate by themselves unless ecological niches open up in the new home area.
* Even if carbon emissions were entirely curtailed tomorrow, it's estimated that we would still experience 2 degrees C of warming over the next 100 years due to the time-lag involved on the warming effect of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. A warming of 1.5 C is thought to be sufficient to result in the extinction of 15-30% of species worldwide.
In other words, we've gone beyond any so-called tipping point, in my opinion. Clearly, the challenges to global conservation of plants will be enormous. On the other hand, I really think that humans are pretty clever (intelligent, maybe not as much), and we can probably think up ways to help conserve plant species more effectively under changing climate conditions. Seed collections are one method that this might be done, but I'm curious if others have ideas.
As an example, one thing I have wondered about is whether it would be feasible to intentionally move plant communities, or at least select species, polewards. The 30 ft per day would even out to something like 2 miles per year, so a decade's worth of movement might still just be 20 miles. I'm guessing this would be most useful at ecotones, and might need to account for soil types in some way, but it's one idea I thought of while listening to plant conservation lectures that seemed so dire.
