According to the mainstream media. Looking to recent trends, when people begin hearing this, the new surge of buying and investing will begin again. This is a good time to start looking for properties. If you are in the market or were thinking about getting into it anytime soon, this will be your chance to get ahead of the game.
This is just my opinion of course but it is based and many years watching the trends in this market.
This is just my opinion of course but it is based and many years watching the trends in this market.
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San Diego
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Sun, May 13, 2007 - 2:09 PMI hope you're right about this. We want to wait until
the equity in our house climbs back up and then sell
this house. I'm hoping that will be within two years.
How do you know, with a market like this, when to sell
and when to hold on to a house? -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Sun, May 13, 2007 - 3:10 PMMaybe we can figure out a way to be creative and do some financing that will let you keep your house? There si soooooooo much out there!!! -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Sun, May 13, 2007 - 4:20 PMWe tried to re-fi and can't do it right now. We're working
on improving our terrible credit so we can in 6 months or
so. Basically we've gotten ourselves into a predatory loan
situation and are paying a ridiculous mortgage every month.
At this point I feel incredibly fortunate to even have a house,
but we would like to eventually move out of this house into
one a bit further away from people. I won't move out of this
house willingly unless we're moving into another one that
we'll own. I don't want to ever rent long-term again.
What I truly need is someone to sit down with me and help
me plan out how to improve our credit and see what we can
do to improve the value of our property and home. We've
just kind of stumbled along through this process without
any real guidance.
vixxen -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Sat, July 28, 2007 - 10:17 PMi hope you've gotten some help by now, but if not::
things to do to improve your credit.......
-don't open any new lines of credit (NO CARS LOANS!)
-you want all of your balances to be LESS than HALF of your limits (credit card limit of $5000 means you don't put more than $2500 on the card)
-once they're all down to HALF, then try to get them all down to less than one QUARTER
-there are two ways to make your balances less than half: pay them down, or increase the limit. call your credit card companies every month and ask for a complimentary credit increase. the word "complimentary" means they're not going to check your credit. do NOT let them check your credit. talk to managers and reason with them that this card is hurting your credit. see what they can do. if they don't budge ask, "what's the PAY OFF AMOUNT? because i need to get rid of this thing if i can't get a credit increase."
-do NOT close any accounts
-and of course, pay your bills on time!
ok, start there. :)
gertie
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Fri, December 21, 2007 - 11:04 AMI formerly worked in the wholesale lending side of residential mortgage in sales. I know a few things that you can do to improve your credit score immediately. There are also companies that I work with who take on your credit case and fight to repair your credit and can raise up to 100 points dependent upon each individual situation. This service is very affordable when you weigh out your increases in your mortgage payment if you are on an adjustable.
Contact me directly through Tribe
Liz
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Tue, March 11, 2008 - 7:14 AMWell if you're in the Pacific Northwest my friend Dave Martinez can help you out.
contact him at 206-577-3060 or dave@diemfinancial.net
He's been helping us with getting out from our 80/20 ARM plus helping us with our credit stuff too. Dave rocks. Tell him Jezebel sent you.
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Fri, August 17, 2007 - 3:49 PMHi all. New to this tribe, ten year BRC vet, fifteen year vet of The Real Estate Wars.
I have to disagree with the OP. Up here in the Bay Area we're looking at record foreclosures and now, over three months since the OP, values continue to decline. I had three deals die yesterday alone because of panic on market and Wall Street conditions. In Sonoma County as an example there are over 1000 notes in various stages of default. Lenders are starting to look at short sales to cut their losses and get out of the investment. We all have 'creative financing' to thank for this mess. The time bomb that has been ticking for the past several years has blown up. While fed dropped the key interest rate today, that is of little consequence to the borrower in sub-prime loans.
This is a frikkin' mess based largely on the panic threshold of investors. Wall Street posted a reassuring gain today after this week's bloodbath, but we're heading in to Sept and Oct which are the worst times to be in the market.
The important thing to remember is that this cycle will come to a close. Nobody should borrow money on equity right now, and indeed the requirements for doing such are getting much more strict.
All things considered, I'm glad I'm heading off to the playa in a week and a half. -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Fri, August 17, 2007 - 4:12 PMBut good times for investors ...... -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Sun, August 19, 2007 - 7:59 AMYou have to be pretty diligent to find a worthy investment these days. Worthy being the classic "undervalued property". The problem is the 100% financing that has most of these lenders and borrowers in dutch right now. You take a property that is worth $680,000, was appraised at $700,000 based on then-current appreciation trends, and is now worth $600,000 with a notice of default on a $680,000 note, and you can see where the lenders are starting to have problems. Unfortunately a huge percentage of Bay Area real estate had this type of financing originated over the past three to five years. It's criminal (or at least it should have been) and it leaves a narrow pool of worthy investments for the bargain-hunters.
In commercial we've seen cap rates at a ridiculously low 5.5% for the past four years. When money markets were earning 4.3% it made a bittersweet alternative to CDs. Now we're starting to see them back up at 7.2% to 7.8% and the aggressive investors are demanding at least 8%. While this is more indicative of healthy real estate investment, some of these folks who bought these 5-6% investments are kind of held by the short and curlies because their leveraged purchases demand that they hold on to the investment and miss the wealth opps in the stabalized markets.
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Mon, March 10, 2008 - 4:07 PM"I have to disagree with the OP."
I disagree also.
Too many subprime ARMs are still due to reset. -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Mon, March 10, 2008 - 4:33 PMAgree with Stainless. I think waiting until there's an uptick is wise--and there's no sign of that. A quick look at a Wall Street Journal shows a real subprime bloodbath still in progress.
In the long run I'm bullish on real estate, esp. in San Diego, but right now it's uuugly. -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Mon, March 10, 2008 - 5:00 PMWell guys, my point was that "according to mainstream media" we had hit bottom ... nobody knows what or where the bottom is. The trend is what is subject to influence, so those words being printed in the papers and talked about on television has actually started a buying trend with some momentum right now. -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Mon, March 10, 2008 - 5:37 PM"so those words being printed in the papers and talked about on television has actually started a buying trend with some momentum right now."
There is?!
I'd like to see some data if you could point me to it.
I'm extremely skeptical of any bottoming out because not even half of the subprime ARMs have reset yet. All those need to reset, the foreclosures completed and the losses written off by the mortgage-backed-securities holders before the credit markets get back to normal. The holders of those securities are experiencing great difficulty because of a lack of regulation in the realm of data collection of the state of the mortgages in those securities. None of the big players wants to take the risk of buying those securities because the lack of data inhibits them from even making an educated guess as to the true worth of the securities. Therefore, the bond ratings of those holders has plummeted, making it more expensive for them to borrow money to cover their losses. It's a vicious cycle. Even after it all shakes out, the psyche of the market will need to heal.
Typically markets overcorrect, both too high and too low.
We'll see what happens. Economically, there are no perfect historical analogues. On the downside we've got looming inflation, the high oil prices and the subprime mess. On the plus side we've got ever increasing productivity because of the efficiencies realized from the free flow of information and international trade. Can that positive offset those negatives and avert a major recession? Maybe. No one really knows. -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Mon, March 10, 2008 - 5:41 PMLet me clarify:
It's my belief that no one really knows. Maybe someone has access to enough data and is smart enough to take it all in and make a good prediction. Warren Buffet maybe, but he thinks we're already a recession. -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Mon, March 10, 2008 - 10:00 PMHenry:
If it were a year ago when I wrote that I would gladly have shown you the front page of the real estate section 3 days out of seven for about a month... and that's about all I have to say about this -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Tue, March 11, 2008 - 7:33 AMRegardless of what the media is saying the market is still fluctuating and prices are still dropping in my area. It's challenging to price listings at market value because the market value keeps dropping and houses are on the market longer these days. I'm getting through this by focusing my efforts into a particular area of expertise and marketing to those people but also taking another job so I have some kind of income.
The tough part is, as St(b stated, the money out there that drives the mortgage lending is still highly unstable. In addition our country is going through a great upheaval and people are scared about their economic future. I agree, don't do "creative financing", you want a solid loan from a reputable lender for your own financial protection.
I don't listen to much of what the media says. I treat it as entertainment and pay more attention to what my collegues have to say and my experience of the market around me.
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Tue, March 11, 2008 - 9:39 AMI agree with you Stainless, my ARM is adjusting in two years time. Who knows how many other people are in this situation. It's time to renovate our places (luckily mine was a bit of a fixer-upper) and sell to avoid losses. We've fallen from the golden real estate mountain to the bottom of the valley but now we're sinking to the bottom of the ocean. -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Tue, March 11, 2008 - 6:05 PMSpin:
It might be wise to hold off until after the election. Election years usually spell wackiness on Wall Street. Additionally the Fed is doing yet another bonehead move by taking a bunch of bad debt off of lenders' hands to free up liquidity and using that paper as security measures. We're not out of the woods yet and all of the above points to another downtick in the market in the immediate future. Additionally, all of this 'economic stimulation' is geared to get money in to retail coffers, not in to bank accounts to earn a whopping 4%. The short view is that the dollar is about to take another hit against the foriegn currencies, imo. I would tend to wait until after things settle down, or at least wait for Spring to spring when more buyers come out of the woodwork. Just my .02 -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Wed, March 12, 2008 - 9:16 AMI agree that holding off till we get this dickhead out of office is the way to. I'm not planning on selling any time soon seeing as there's two years left on my ARM and payment are affordable. I'm putting spare cash into renovating the place seeing as that was the original intention back in '05 but it sucks that I wanted to be out of there a year ago. Oh well an extra three years in a small condo is better than losing cash and destroying credit. Thanks for the advice.
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Tue, March 11, 2008 - 11:09 PMIt's not all bad news. Long term the SD market is always going to go up, so if you're in it for the long haul, there's nothing to worry about. San Diego is bound on all sides - Mexico, the Pacific Ocean, Camp Pendleton and Cleveland National Forest has us bound in. There's a land shortage in the long run.
That doesn't mean we can't have a big short-term bubble.
As for the bad stuff: the thing about the ARMs is important because a not-unsignificant portion of the buyers in 2005-6 were speculators who wanted to gamble on the market (thinking it was going to go up forever) yet couldn't afford a normal rate. Traditionally, lenders didn't have teaser rates and they required you to prove your income. In 2005-6, some of the loans were not only based on stated income (no proof required), they offered those "teaser rates".
The result is there's a significant number of people w/ homes who can't afford to make the payments when the teaser rates reset to a realistic rate that will pay the loan off rather than do a negative amortization. That means there's gonna be a significant number of foreclosures still to come in the next year. How many? No one knows because of the "stated income". No one knows how many people exaggerrated. They weren't required to provide proof, so in effect, there's no hard data. -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Wed, March 12, 2008 - 1:02 PMI'm in the Bay Area market, which is another market short on land, high on Urban Growth Boundaries, and prone to serious upside. Up here the foreclosure rate isn't anywhere near as bad as, say, Stockton (40%) or other central valley markets. But it is still nasty. In the last month I've been following the public notices pretty closely and I have only seen one Buy Opp that made sense ($248,000 on a $600,000 condo). Most of the myriad of foreclosures happening in this market are clearly on teaser loans with neg-amm (eg: $658,000 on $550,000 NCV fixer in an also-ran neighborhood). But here on the commercial real estate side it is u.g.l.y. 35% office vacancies, 20% industrial vacancies, and actual Store Closing signs over banners that say Grand Opening. -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Thu, March 13, 2008 - 3:19 AM30% Office and 20% Industrial vacancies? That's pretty goddam high. Not that I don't believe you, but where can I read up on that? did the Bay Area go through a commercial building boom recently? Or?
On a related note, here's an article that details one of the specific global ripple effects of the subprime.
www.reuters.com/article/pr...99620080313
It's kinda amazing to me that would happen to them. If you google "Carlyle Group", some of the investors are amongst the most powerful individuals in the world. OTOH, Carlyle Capital is merely an affiliate of the Carlyle Group, but still. -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Fri, March 14, 2008 - 10:53 AMHere's a couple of links for vacancies in the 'always fashionable' :
www.keegancoppin.com/pdf/son...fice.pdf
www.keegancoppin.com/pdf/son...rial.pdf
I just submitted an article regarding the market which will be published in the North Bay Business Journal next Monday. I will cut and paste the text after it is published (gotta respect their desire to sell papers without giving out the milk for free and all). I did an interview for part of an article in New York Times about three years ago where I warned about what was coming to pass. I was the only voice in the article that said, "Don't overbuild". Everybody else in the article completely slammed on me for being so cautious. Out of those bulls, two are BK and two are markedly silent on the subject. Only one (Venture Capital Corporation) had the class to admit that they were too aggressive in the market.
To answer your question, St, yes there was a tremendous overbuild during the tech boom. South of the Golden Gate it was dot-com. North of the Golden Gate it was Telecom. Dot-com bursts (thanks, NAFTA), telecom followed shortly thereafter, and so much for smart growth. During the boom a twenty year inventory of industrial land was converted to office and retail uses. Because most cities in the Bay Area have Urban Growth Boundaries, they can't even consider annexing land in to City Limits for anywhere from 12 to 20 years. As a result, speculators and developers overpaid for industrial land, can't afford to put up anything but high end office or mixed-use residential (the banks won't let them), and are now being drawn to da po'house by being the most risky type of investor there is: The Land Banker.
The Southbay is sloooooowly starting to recover. The North Bay is starting to see a lot of activity close to the Golden Gate Bridge which is pushing vacancies down and rents are starting to reflect this trend. Leasing activity has picked up considerably during the recent quarter, but it is still a bad market.
The 10-year treasury bill dropped (again) yesterday while the dollar hit a historical low agains the Euro and the Yen. Crude was at over $111/barrell for a while yesterday (I haven't checked the markets today because it is too fucking depressing). The pension funds, speculators, investment firms, etc are starting to bet heavily on the oil futures and that is part of what is driving those costs up (can you guess what the next downturn will be and who will take it in the ass when it happens?). Meanwhile I got a fucking letter from the IRS yesterday giving me the bad news that I might be eligible for a $600 check come May as part of W's final attempt to devalue the US-dollar even more. -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Sat, March 15, 2008 - 1:12 AMThanks for the data. Got any of the same on SF City Area Industrial?
As for the bubble - I thought the same as you. Sold my house in 2004 to take advantage of what I thought was a bubble then. The market had already been going up ~20%/year for 5 years and I was totally confounded when it kept on going up. I didn't know what was going on w/ the subprimes, the "stated income" (instead of proven income) on the loan aps, the negative amortization loans, etc. I can't believe that the investors, the holders of the bundled collatoralized notes, allowed people to do that with their money. Those guys are supposed to be pros. Ha. Morons. Greed will make you stupid.
As for the oil bubble: if history serves as any guide, that'll blow up even bigger. I have an amateur theory that oil bubbles are the largest and explode the worst because of the amount of time it takes to get those projects built. It's difficult to make supply and demand coincide. An oil project might take 5-10 years to get online while it takes 1-5 years (depends upon the <insert city here> bureaucracy) to build a big real estate project. When demand exceeds supply and the investors are thinking "time to make money!", it take years for them to get things going and in the meantime, demand builds more and more. Prices go up and up. More and more projects go into the building stages. The first ones go on line and make money, and when enough of them do go online, the pressure goes out of the bubble. But there's a problem: prices start dropping and all the projects still in the building phases have to finish. Then there's the excess supply and the big crash.
Oil gets a bigger bubble because of the longer time of this cycle allows more pressure to be built up in the demand phase and too many projects to go online as everyone's eyes get big at the thought of all that money to be made.
Sorry about the off-topic, but PI started it! -
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Re: Housing values have bottomed...
Sat, March 15, 2008 - 3:27 PMI'm on my home system right now, which is sadly infected with the Vundo trojan. I'm gonna stay off the intranet so I don't kill everybody else's computer, but will check either on Monday or if I have time (I'm performing in a gig tonight), log on to the intranet with my laptop. Industrial is dropping in SF, but it is still a crappy time to do an adaptive reuse development. I'll get you that information and mebbe we can explore doing a project together.
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