-
Re: Rates are on the move...
Sat, March 1, 2008 - 4:23 PMRates are on the move, but where there was once a 120 spread on the loans, there is now a 250 to 300 spread. Credit has tightened up and it's going to take the banks participating in reducing their spreads before people who might actually benefit from the current prime are going to be able to perform.
It's a blood bath. 40% foreclosure rates in Stockton right now. Dunmore, which has operated in the black for three generations, filed for protection several months ago and is liquidating their assets today. This means that everybody who purchased a new home from them no longer has warranty protection. There's going to be a string of these over the next several months and prudent buyers should steer clear of new developments until this shakes out.
The market IS going to turn (it always does), but it won't be until toward the end of 08. It is, quite simply, mathematically impossible. -
-
Re: Rates are on the move...
Sat, March 1, 2008 - 6:21 PMEven in Seattle where the foreclosures were fewer and the market didn't tank responsible Brokers are carefully reviewing listings before taking them on. Sellers should be ready to spend upwards of 90 days on the market, even longer for "less than ideal" homes. Agents have to pull out all the tricks to get their listings in front of the right buyers.
The good news is that the condo market is still climbing slow but steady. I'm seeing lot's of condo sales and listings go pretty quick, about 40 days on the market average in my office. I'm also seeing an awesome trend in my area of young developers putting Green Built 4-plexes on the market and some big developers working on multi-use buildings to help revive the economy.
I just remind myself to hang in there, that getting through this tough time is going to be so worth it later on. It's difficult to achieve your dreams of sailing to the new world if you keep jumping ship. -
-
Re: Rates are on the move...
Fri, March 7, 2008 - 2:06 PMIt will turn, and your willingness to ride it out is a good sign that you will reach prosperity when occurs. It's the damn "Life is good, business is great, people are wonderful" phony optimism that steps on my dick nerve. It is the same optimism that got all these poor souls in over their heads to begin with. Real data shows that it is a bad market. When we get actual buyers we need to make sure that we're not goading them in over their heads. Some people truly wish to 'charge ahead' and hope for the best; for them I simply give my advice and recommendations (in writing) and close the transaction so that they can meet their goals and I can look at myself in the mirror. I would rather make a commission on a solid transaction and have repeat business over the next ten years than make a commish on a marginal transaction and face the guilt that those buyers will likely be facing foreclosure in the next couple of years.
Truly, how many of us saw this coming? I did. Everybody who I know did. I warned the hell out of people that this was a bubble and it would burst. I've received three letters thanking me over the course of the last two years from people that took my advice, bought a smaller unit, bought an honest loan, and are making their payments while their neighbors tank. Those people will do business with me again. Those that got in over their heads despite my advice are contacting me and asking me for advice on how best to deal with their monthly mortgage statement. I wish I had a magic bullet for them, but I don't. I help them as best as I can, but at least they know they're dealing with an honest, realistic broker. -
-
Re: Rates are on the move...
Mon, March 10, 2008 - 4:04 PMI tried warning a few people and they didn't listen. I even had a major blowout w/ one of them. Her take was: "lots of people want to move to San Diego so it will always go up" and my take was "the income to mortgage payment ratio is out of whack. This cannot continue"
I guess if you're an artist, people think you don't know anything about real estate.
I don't think the market will turn until at least the middle of 2009. As of last month there were still 2.8 million subprime ARMs that are still due to reset. The owners of the mortgage backed securities are going to have to take their writedowns on all those before the credit markets will return to normal.
The good news is: if you don't own, there's gonna be some really good opportunities in the future. Just not yet though. Gotta wait for all the writedowns to occur before the market finishes its plunge.
Just my $0.02.
This next year is going to be feally interesting. This subprime debacle is unprecedented. The high oil prices are not. Bernanke could be put into a really tough position - fight the inflation caused by the energy costs or try to loosen credit to fight the business slowdown? It's not good to have those 2 things happen simultaneously. -
-
Re: Rates are on the move...
Mon, March 10, 2008 - 5:08 PMGenerally the rental market is a good one to keep an eye on when there's a buying frenzy. When 2 out of 3 properties are selling to investors, the rental markets will be driven down from a glut of unoccupied properties. Eventually those unoccupied properties will be forced to slash rents or sold cheap which will bring property values down. -
-
Re: Rates are on the move...
Mon, March 10, 2008 - 5:17 PMWhen do you think that will happen? -
-
Re: Rates are on the move...
Mon, March 10, 2008 - 10:01 PMalready happened and happening -
-
Re: Rates are on the move...
Tue, March 11, 2008 - 6:14 PMWhere is this buying frenzy which you are speaking? A lot of people that took it in the shorts during this most recent travesty are speculators. I know of a handful of developers/investors that are looking to make a killing, but when people are owing more on the property than it is worth it doesn't make much sense to compete with the note holder. Letting the note holder foreclose and trying to pick it up in a short sale is the only way to really save too much money unless you're a cash investor. -
-
This is the maximum depth. Additional responses will not be threaded.
Re: Rates are on the move...
Tue, March 11, 2008 - 6:31 PMThe buying frenzy happened 3 years ago and the rents were driven down all over the place.
-
-
-
-
-
-
Re: Rates are on the move...
Mon, March 10, 2008 - 4:43 PMWhen I bought about two years ago, the market seemed frothy but I wanted a house of my own regardless. Still I wasn't going near an ARM; they were radioactive as far as I was concerned. Especially not for 100% financing! I was in the market for a fixed 30-year that I could afford; and if I couldn't do that, I wasn't going to buy.
Now the chickens are coming home to roost. It wasn't hard to see coming, and voila, here it is. It's still sad to see all the for-sale signs popping up suddenly. Imprudent financial moves = human misery. -
-
Re: Rates are on the move...
Tue, March 11, 2008 - 6:20 PMand a bunch o' hefty bonuses for those who created this fucking mess:
www.cbsnews.com/stories/20...16355.shtml
Shocking that they were defended by Issa after being called to task by the Waxman and the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.
-
-
-
-
Rates are on the move...topic posted Sat, February 23, 2008 - 10:09 AM by bb |
|
Recent topics in "Burner Real Estate & Mortgage Center"
| Topic | Author | Replies | Last Post |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast |
|
9 | June 11, 2008 |
| City of Carlsbad CA. investment opportunity |
catherine
|
0 | June 11, 2008 |
| House for sale in exclusive Valley Village wih fully equipped ... |
|
4 | June 9, 2008 |
| Mortgage meltdown, retail sales, and crude, Oh My |
|
4 | June 1, 2008 |