What do blueberry pancakes have to do with Global Warming? I'm glad that you asked.

Several years ago, I was talking with an astrophysicist acquaintance, and Mamikon explained his own theory of climate change. I hope that I've understood him correctly.

I don't see any of the prominent Global Warming mavens talking about the Blueberry Pancake Therory of Climate change. So I'll pass on the message, and give my own half-baked analogy for clarification.

Over long periods of time, the Earth oscillates into, and then slightly out of the interior of the planetary disk of our solar system. Why? Sideways gravitational tweaks from Jupiter. In addition to planets and asteroids, the disk also contains dust. When the Earth is in the center of the planetary disk, there is more dust between it and the sun, and a slightly smaller proportion of the sun's light hits the Earth. This has a global cooling effect, even if solar output remains constant. By the same logic, Global Warming happens when the Earth passes out of the center of the disk. Here's an analogy.

The next time you make blueberry pancakes, save one, and let it cool off. Then using a butter knife, cut out a 3-inch circular piece from the center, and feed that center piece to your Golden Retriever. You're left with a donut-shaped pancake. Next remove the lampshade from your living room lamp. Turn on the lamp. Hold the pancake ring around the light bulb. The light bulb will heat up the pancake ring unevenly.

Obviously, the part of the pancake ring closest to the bulb will heat up the fastest. More to the point, the blueberries on the outside of the pancake ring will heat up faster than the deeply buried blueberries that are the same distance from the lightbulb.

In this analogy, the lightbulb plays the role of the sun, the cooked pancake batter plays the role of the dust in the planetary disk, and the blueberries play the roles of the planets.

A similar thing may happen on a larger scale. The solar system may be a blueberry in the spiral 'pancake' of our Milky Way Galaxy. At times, gravitational tweaks may cause interstellar dust to enter the solar system, to prevent a small fraction of the sun's light from reaching Earth, and to result in temporary global cooling.

The majority of people on both sides of the Global Warming debate acknowledge that for big climate changes in the past, astronomical events were the most important drivers (with volcanism in second place). Most of the Global Warming alarmists and some of the Global Warming indifferentists assume that variations in the sun's output are the most important astronomical events that affect climate change on Earth. I question that piece of conventional wisdom.

Notwithstanding the shrill rhetoric on both sides of the Global Warming debate, it's very possible that the Blueberry Pancake Effect is currently the major driver of climate change, and that greenhouse gas emissions play a secondary role. I think that we need more research into the Blueberry Pancake Theory of Climate Change.
posted by:
Larry
Sacramento

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