Future eating

topic posted Sat, October 14, 2006 - 6:07 PM by  Roy
It is a well known fact that our supply of arable soils is going down while our population is increasing. Let's fast forward into a possible future where the amount of available arable land becomes insignificant in comparison to our population. Obviously with such a large population there's no going back to hunting/gathering either.

We would have to live off of non-arable land like rocky slopes, marshes, etc. Some products of these environments we can eat directly such as young leaves or starchy tubers. Most we would have to feed to other organisms such as goats, fungi, fish, rabbits, snails and then use these as food. Although many insects supposedly make delicious and nourishing food, most of us have a thing about eating certain of these foods.

Also many live in a temperate climate where one has to produce 12 months of food in 6 months of the year, a serious challenge. Where there was time available for such, rebuilding areas of arable soil would become an important activity.

This thread is to explore people's ideas about mankind's food supply under such future conditions.
posted by:
Roy
offline Roy
Costa Rica
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    Re: Future eating

    Sat, October 14, 2006 - 10:09 PM

    Wow Roy another interesting mind expanding post / question to the group.

    You are right on about running out of land that will support the food needs of the world.

    However I think that the history of the human race has shown that the solution that will be taken will be to kill off enough people to match the land available not a clever use or optimization to support the growing population.

    I also leave you with two words. Soylent Green
    • Re: Future eating

      Sun, October 15, 2006 - 3:26 AM
      I don't think that it will be necessary for people to kill each other in order to have enough to eat. Which leads us to cannibalism (soylent green) which is a biologically acceptable solution but not particularly appealing on a human scale. These things could happen but I don't see them as a commonly accepted viable solution. Of course, here I'm being reasonable and logical, and humans are not always such.

      How does permaculture fit into the equation?
  • Re: Future eating

    Wed, October 18, 2006 - 1:54 PM
    A certain amount of hydroponics and/or indoor growth schemes would be necessary. It would also necessitate a change in philosophy regarding design of buildings of all kinds. Piping natural light to building interiors would be of a higher priority as well as much more extensive use of photovoltaic solar cells to offset the power requirements for indoor plant growth. Protected from the elements/pests and with constant support (nutrition, water, light, etc) the density of food production would increase dramatically compared to outdoor grows. Imagine a skyscraper with every other floor dedicated to food production. There would also be side benefits in air quality.

    This wouldn't be able to take the place of large amounts of arable land, but it certainly could help. Unfortunately for this to happen there will have to be a tremendous need, which means it would be a reaction to large scale food shortages and/or war.
    • Re: Future eating

      Wed, October 18, 2006 - 4:12 PM
      Yeah, the possible picture ain't pretty! And when you mention hydroponics, it brings to mind the fact that, in most places, a shortage of water will probaby become more critical than a shortage of arable land. Also hydroponic agriculture uses a list of chemicals that traditionally are mined and/or processed using petroleum energy. Anything new in organic hydroponics?
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        Re: Future eating

        Wed, October 18, 2006 - 9:54 PM
        There are people doing purely organic hydroponics. One farm that does 300 head of lettuce a month comes to mind. But it is still very energy intensive.

        Also where plants go bugs do follow and that includes indoors.
        • Re: Future eating

          Sun, November 26, 2006 - 10:58 AM

          We can look back to agricultural techniques used in areas with a lack of water and arable land: the mochica in peru had methods to capture humidity from the air and irrigate in the planet's driest environment. Chinampa agriculture is super productive and comes mind, but needs a lot of water. Terracing in slopy areas has a lot of beautiful possibilities...
          • Re: Future eating

            Sun, November 26, 2006 - 8:43 PM
            Most of these methods of agriculture are effective but labor intensive. Maybe we should form a society in which every able bodied adult had to personally produce sufficient food for 1 1/2 persons or go hungry. This would take care of young children, the ill and aged.
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              Re: Future eating

              Sun, November 26, 2006 - 9:11 PM
              I think that the cultural revolution has proven that is not a viable option. Some people are not suited to growing food just like some people are not suited to engineering mass transportation or an alternative energy system. People should be matched with the work they love to do. Many people are suited to growing food. The problem is that agribusiness is matching bean counters with bean growers. We need to give that land back to the people that want to grow the food. Give back literally. A business should have no rights to own land and the land should be world property and the people that are the best stewards of the land for either growing food or maintaining a natural habitat should be put in charge of a plot of land that they can maintain / farm. You will have enough food to feed a large number of people. Maybe even the world population. I just don’t know if that is possible as we grow to 9 billion inhabitants in the coming decades.
              • Re: Future eating

                Mon, November 27, 2006 - 6:40 AM
                You've got a point. Give the people who would grow food the rights to the land needed. Everyone has the food growing obligation that I mentioned but can make arrangements to others to assume their ovligation, freeing them for something else.

                I just saw on CNN that a number of square kilometers of Brazil's top ag land is being taken to build a huge petro-chemical complex. People of Earth, if you can't find food, eat plastic.
                • change one step at a time

                  Mon, November 27, 2006 - 7:38 AM
                  Before this topic gets derailed by the politics that will inevitably accompany a suggestion of getting people to farm their own food (by force or incentive) or changing the standard of private property that is the basis of a global economy even in China. I would like to offer more incremental steps of significant impact; how about we change the way we cook food?

                  Second, remember that cities are growing everywhere. More people now live in cities than rural areas or on farms on the Earth and this is true in Africa and Asia, not just the Americas and Europe. If the cities are forcible deconstructed there will not only be chaos but rampant destruction of the environment for a considerable period before stability can return. This might occur anyway if there are sustained disruptions of the food supply that the urban metropoli depend on. There is another area that must be better developed and we have mentioned this already; the sea.

                  A considerable amount of land is now available on coastal shelves not far from land and also these areas are currently being desertified (ironically since they are underwater) by the impact of human behavior. These areas could and should be better developed to act as food producing regions of new dietary foodstuffs generated by underwater farming, These are not only farm raised fish and crustaceans but kelp and other marine plants that are adapted to mass production technology. These even include healthy algae that can be used in making synthetic meats and other products when combined with land based agriculture.

                  Actually this is a big step but it begins slowly and incrementally in order to achieve sizable results. We need to both defend the maritime environment and recognize the opportunity we have because the area available is even greater than that available on land. In order to protect the environment on the land we must develop the sea for habitat and agriculture but also to end the wanton pollution and protect its natural environment as well.

                  Helping to make the sea inhabitable by humanity makes us all the more witness to the destruction and also puts humanity in a position to intervene constructively along with the incentive and means to do so. It buys us some time to make the generational shifts and resolve the cultural distractions that impede our ability to become a truly civilized species.

                  Now for the small step; cooking.

                  I have been thinking that we could save a considerable amount of energy and cost if we changed our cookware. I was looking at how much energy is lost when cooking and in fact it's considerable. It is not difficult to design a new type of cookware that utilizes modern ceramics with a bi-metal copper clad cast iron base that insulates the walls and cover to retain a greater amount of heat inside the cooking chamber. This would mean the ability to cook with far less energy. This could even mean a more effective way of using sunlight for daytime cooking or other heat sources. This cookware would require an adaptive sponsor capable of developing advantages from its differences of method but it could be mass produced cheaply, made reliable, durable and easily maintained.

                  It should be made from recycled materials and could be a great money maker for an emerging techno economy if the design were developed well first and then brought to them for competitive manufacture. There are other examples of this approach that could be made more common. For example fermentation.

                  The homemade manufacture of yogurt, tofu and even some cheeses (not to mention beer and wine) are all possible efficiently at home with table top processors that operate like automated bread-makers or smarter crock-pots. This does not have to be another Popeil product or one for just the rich but a way of getting people to begin to deal with changing their diet through personal control. If you want people to change how and what we eat there must also be alternatives and an time for the learning curve to take place. People can't eat polemics and the resistance to change is not simple a massive global marketing machine it is the convenience an demands of modern life that encourage a dependence on processed foods.

                  These are just two examples of a different way of looking at the problem from the more traditional debate over economic theory, private property, agricultural technology and cultural inertia. Seek alternatives that are able to be instituted without significant conflict but as means of competitive advantage. Also these are examples of a way to get beyond the classic left/right or techno/naturalist clash.

                  Please try and come up with some more of your own ideas that offer real alternatives rather than just a repetition of past paradigms that are no longer workable without a post apocalyptic scenario. I think we should be seeking ideas that either prevent such a turn of events or at least minimizes the catastrophic impact that has all too tragically been the classic incentive for real changes, those paradigms shifts that brought opportunity for golden ages or just as commonly (if not more often) the dark ages that we seen to go out of our way to forget when studying history .
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                    Re: change one step at a time

                    Mon, November 27, 2006 - 10:31 PM
                    < changing the standard of private property that is the basis of a global economy even in China>

                    Are the standards of the global economy really such “standards”. There are many “givens” that we take as set in stone that have only been around for the past few decades or in some cases few centuries. But have not been the standard of the majority of human kinds existence. Rather it is a good job of limited education that have instilled in the population a “knowledge” of what is required for the global economy. This knowledge does not benefit the majority of the population only the few wealthy and the corporate entities.
                    • Re: change one step at a time

                      Tue, November 28, 2006 - 2:35 PM
                      >>>>< changing the standard of private property that is the basis of a global economy even in China>

                      Are the standards of the global economy really such “standards”. There are many “givens” that we take as set in stone that have only been around for the past few decades or in some cases few centuries. But have not been the standard of the majority of human kinds existence. Rather it is a good job of limited education that have instilled in the population a “knowledge” of what is required for the global economy. This knowledge does not benefit the majority of the population only the few wealthy and the corporate entities.<<<<

                      Shoulda, woulda, coulda.

                      I don't mean to sound glib but while you are *technically* correct about the overall time frame of the *standard* versus human evolution it is a standard today nonetheless. One that is the *dominant* global one, one that is becoming more so daily and the clearly predominant ascendant one since the rise of civilization began 10 thousand years ago.

                      This does not mean that other subcultural economies do not exist or cannot coexist within specific demands and guidelines but the reality is what it is and "denial is not a river."

                      There is no return to some aledgedly idyllic (or more realistic) past possible without the associated apocalyptic scenario. The search for an alternative future is not one that will look like the past if we succeed in creating a novel alternative to either the current global economic model or the growing catastrophic forces that will moderate some of the excesses by trading them for other excesses.

                      Also while the conditions of the past offered some advantages for barter economic models for example I do not think it is constructive to idealize all aspects of the past, some of the brutal competition, feast/famine cycles, extensive mortality, general ignorance, and shortened life expectancy are not conditions that I for one see as a part of a desirable future.

                      I do not consider a viable post petroleum future as one that is less technological but more adaptive in terms of technology. Technology is as much a part of our species character as wings on a bird. The key is shifting the paradigms for how technology is applied not ending the application of technology. In terms of markets it means that local economies must adapt to competition on a global scale because some of these things are simply necessary to sustain even the population we have not to mention the population numbers we must be able to soon provide for if we are not going to depopulate this world by catastrophe.

                      We will never see a voluntary depopulation (reducing demand and environmental impact to a rational level) in a single generation but it is also clear that the elevated lifestyle offered by technocracy does naturally limit population growth when given a sufficient number of generations; usually somewhere between four and six appear to historically represent the time frame from elevation from a subsistence level to voluntary Zero Population Growth and a stable economic model, and until now that has depended on cheap energy for bootstrapping out of poverty. This is one of the paradigms that must be challenged, not accepting a standard of poverty as normal.

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