R.I.P. US $

topic posted Thu, February 28, 2008 - 5:18 PM by  michael
Could the new Iranian Oil Bourse that opened last week [1] be the beginning of the end of US dollar hegemony? [2] It is surprising how little attention this is receiving now that it is finally opened for trading but I venture that it is no coincidence that oil prices have reached a new all time record high, and the dollar an all time low -vs- the Euro as of yesterday. [3] US fiscal policymakers seem to be completely out of touch with actual data in stating that "Our current view is that inflation will moderate this year as oil and food prices don't rise as much this year as they did last year." [4]

What is Bernanke smoking? Oil and wheat prices are setting record prices TODAY which can only mean higher prices in the future as these costs are passed on to consumers. Combine this with a housing market that is in freefall [5] and well, it just don't look good. Seems like the New World Order might not go down as Bush and co. have planned.

One thing seems certain - this revolution will not be televised...

[1] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Oil_Bourse
[2] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_hegemony
[3] news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7270075.stm
[4] www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...tory.aspx

[5] www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...tory.aspx
posted by:
michael
  • Re: R.I.P. US $

    Fri, February 29, 2008 - 9:39 AM
    the iranians can open as many oil bourses as they wish but they will never fly too high, oil will always be traded in civilized places like chicago or london or perhaps even dubai. oil producing countries, including iran, care too much about their biggest moneymakers to bet them on politically unstable locations unnecesarily. as to your other points:
    1. the end of the us dollar hegemony began about a decade ago. it is true and it is not a bad thing. the segniorage privileges the us had because of the position of the dollar in international foreign exchange markets allowed external and monetary imbalances to grow to bubble proportions in the us.

    2. you are absolutely right, the prices of oil and the us dollar are correlated. since oil is quoted in us dollars, a decline in the value of the dollar requires an increase in the price of oil just to keep it constant against a basket of world currencies, and that is part (but far from all) of the reason why oil prices are going through the roof

    3 and 4. since prices of oil and food have raised so much already, they are unlikely to grow at the same pace in the near future because they start from a much higher base. and yes, those prices will pass through wider inflation indeces, but the lower price of housing will in turn have a deflationary effect. i haven't taken a look at the fed's inflation models and all the current data they are feeding into it, but a recessionary (or at least slowing) economy suggests there are no endogenous (and therefore self-reinforcing) inflationary pressures, but only external inflationary shocks that are, by definition, temporary

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